Testing the Informational Efficiency of OTC Optionson Emerging Market Currencies

This paper analyzes the informational efficiency of OTC currency options on the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty correcting for the volatility risk premium and errors-in-variable problems, using state-of-the-art techniques (Chernov 2001). It finds that these markets are more efficient than mature m...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Chan-Lau, Jorge
Other Authors: Méndez Morales, Armando
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2003
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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653 |a Payment Systems 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Dynamic Treatment Effect Models 
653 |a Currency; Foreign exchange 
653 |a Regimes 
653 |a Deflation 
653 |a option pricing 
653 |a Money 
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653 |a Financial Instruments 
653 |a Options 
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653 |a Price Level 
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520 |a This paper analyzes the informational efficiency of OTC currency options on the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty correcting for the volatility risk premium and errors-in-variable problems, using state-of-the-art techniques (Chernov 2001). It finds that these markets are more efficient than mature markets possibly because of higher relative participation of informed dedicated investors, which offset the effects of relative illiquidity and higher transaction costs in these countries. Moreover, implied volatilities generally anticipate the direction of volatility correctly, with a bias to overpredicting volatility increases reflecting one-sided markets