Resource Windfalls and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads The Role of Political Institutions

We examine the effect that revenue windfalls from international commodity price shocks have on sovereign bond spreads using panel data for 30 emerging market economies during the period 1997-2007. Our main finding is that positive commodity price shocks lead to a significant reduction in the soverei...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Arezki, Rabah
Other Authors: Bruckner, Markus
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2010
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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651 4 |a United States 
653 |a Interest rates 
653 |a Sovereign bonds 
653 |a Optimal Taxation 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Financial institutions 
653 |a Financial services 
653 |a Conflict 
653 |a Commodity price shocks 
653 |a Bureaucracy 
653 |a General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 
653 |a Investments: Bonds 
653 |a Yield curve 
653 |a Administrative Processes in Public Organizations 
653 |a Financial markets 
653 |a Corruption 
653 |a Alliances 
653 |a Emerging and frontier financial markets 
653 |a Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior 
653 |a Bonds 
653 |a Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Efficiency 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
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653 |a Commodity prices 
653 |a Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 
653 |a Investment & securities 
653 |a Conflict Resolution 
653 |a Finance: General 
653 |a Commodity Markets 
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520 |a We examine the effect that revenue windfalls from international commodity price shocks have on sovereign bond spreads using panel data for 30 emerging market economies during the period 1997-2007. Our main finding is that positive commodity price shocks lead to a significant reduction in the sovereign bond spread in democracies, but to a significant increase in the spread in autocracies. To explain our finding we show that, consistent with the political economy literature on the resource curse, revenue windfalls from international commodity price shocks significantly increased real per capita GDP growth in democracies, while in autocracies GDP per capita growth decreased