Public Debt and Growth

This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Woo, Jaejoon
Other Authors: Kumar, Manmohan
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2010
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Public Debt and Growth  |c Jaejoon Woo, Manmohan Kumar 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2010 
300 |a 47 pages 
651 4 |a United States 
653 |a Public expenditure review 
653 |a Public debt 
653 |a Public finance & taxation 
653 |a Government debt management 
653 |a Debt Management 
653 |a Debts, Public 
653 |a Capital and Total Factor Productivity 
653 |a Cost 
653 |a Industrial productivity 
653 |a Production 
653 |a Debt 
653 |a Total factor productivity 
653 |a National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General 
653 |a Estimation 
653 |a Sovereign Debt 
653 |a Econometric models 
653 |a Expenditures, Public 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Estimation techniques 
653 |a Capacity 
653 |a Econometrics 
653 |a Econometrics & economic statistics 
653 |a Public Finance 
653 |a Production and Operations Management 
700 1 |a Kumar, Manmohan 
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520 |a This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock