Some Uncomfortable Arithmetic Regarding Europe’s Public Finances

Traditional fiscal indicators focused on measures of current deficits and debt miss the potentially important implications of current policies for future public finances. This could be problematic, including in the case of Europe, where population aging is expected to pose additional fiscal costs no...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Velculescu, Delia
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2010
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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651 4 |a Latvia, Republic of 
653 |a Fiscal stance 
653 |a Population & demography 
653 |a Finance, Public 
653 |a Public Administration 
653 |a Public-Private Enterprises 
653 |a Economics of the Handicapped 
653 |a Social Security and Public Pensions 
653 |a Non-labor Market Discrimination 
653 |a Financial statements 
653 |a Public Enterprises 
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653 |a Fiscal Policy 
653 |a Fiscal policy 
653 |a Aging 
653 |a Economics of the Elderly 
653 |a Population aging 
653 |a Demography 
653 |a Accounting 
653 |a Finance, Public; Accounting 
653 |a Public Sector Accounting and Audits 
653 |a Pension reform 
653 |a Civil service & public sector 
653 |a Pensions 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Financial reporting, financial statements 
653 |a Public Finance 
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520 |a Traditional fiscal indicators focused on measures of current deficits and debt miss the potentially important implications of current policies for future public finances. This could be problematic, including in the case of Europe, where population aging is expected to pose additional fiscal costs not captured by such indicators. To better gauge the state of public finances in the EU27 countries, this paper derives forward-looking fiscal measures of intertemporal net worth both directly from the European Commission’s Aging Working Group’s long-run indicators and using a comprehensive public-sector balance sheet approach. These measures could be used as an "early warning" mechanism and also as a communication device with the public. Current estimates indicate that, on existing policies, the intertemporal net worth of the EU27 is deeply negative, even in excess of its GDP level, and is projected to worsen further over time. This suggests that Europe’s current policies need to be significantly strengthened to bring future liabilities in line with the EU governments’ capacity to generate assets