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Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact Evidence from Survey Data

The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts incr...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos
Other Authors: Rülke, Jan-Christoph
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2011
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Budget Systems
Public Finance & Taxation
Government Debt Management
Economic Forecasting
Debt Management
Fiscal Policy
Debts, Public
Debt
Budget Planning And Preparation
Budgeting
National Income
Sovereign Debt
Budget
Forecasts Of Budgets, Deficits, And Debt
Macroeconomics
Gdp Forecasting
National Budget
Budgeting & Financial Management
Public Finance
Forecasting And Simulation: Models And Applications
Macroeconomic And Fiscal Forecasts
United Kingdom
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
Description
Summary:The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission's and market experts’ deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP’s reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between markets’ forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP.
Physical Description:40 pages
ISBN:9781455218943

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