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A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon

This paper applies a simple probabilistic approach to debt sustainability analysis to the case of Lebanon. The paper derives "fan charts" to depict the probability distribution of the government debt to GDP ratio under a medium-term adjustment scenario, as a result of shocks to GDP growth...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Gardner, E.
Other Authors: Di Giovanni, Julian
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2008
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Interest Rates
Public Debt
Finance
Public Finance & Taxation
Real Interest Rates
Debt Management
Debts, Public
Fiscal Policy
Debt
Exports And Imports
International Economics
International Lending And Debt Problems
Debts, External
Deposit Rates
Sovereign Debt
Banks And Banking
Macroeconomics
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, And Effects
Public Finance
Debt Sustainability Analysis
Lebanon
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
Description
Summary:This paper applies a simple probabilistic approach to debt sustainability analysis to the case of Lebanon. The paper derives "fan charts" to depict the probability distribution of the government debt to GDP ratio under a medium-term adjustment scenario, as a result of shocks to GDP growth and interest rates. The distribution of shocks is derived from the past shocks to these variables and the related variance covariance. Because we are interested in assessing the sustainability of a particular policy scenario, we do not consider independent fiscal policy shocks or the endogenous policy response to shocks
Physical Description:23 pages
ISBN:9781451869583

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