Emerging Market Spread Compression Is it Real or is it Liquidity?

Despite recent turmoil, spreads on emerging market countries' sovereign bonds have fallen dramatically since mid-2002. Some have attributed the fall to improved economic fundamentals while others to ample global liquidity. The paper models spreads and attempts to empirically distinguish between...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Kodres, Laura
Other Authors: Hartelius, Kristian, Kashiwase, Kenichiro
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2008
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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300 |a 36 pages 
651 4 |a United States 
653 |a Interest rates 
653 |a Institutional Investors 
653 |a Pension Funds 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Investments: Futures 
653 |a Monetary economics 
653 |a Financial Instruments 
653 |a Capital market 
653 |a Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General 
653 |a General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 
653 |a Yield curve 
653 |a Derivative securities 
653 |a Non-bank Financial Institutions 
653 |a Emerging and frontier financial markets 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Financial services industry 
653 |a Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 
653 |a Money and Monetary Policy 
653 |a Futures 
653 |a Finance: General 
653 |a Credit ratings 
653 |a Securities markets 
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700 1 |a Kashiwase, Kenichiro 
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520 |a Despite recent turmoil, spreads on emerging market countries' sovereign bonds have fallen dramatically since mid-2002. Some have attributed the fall to improved economic fundamentals while others to ample global liquidity. The paper models spreads and attempts to empirically distinguish between the two factors. The results indicate that fundamentals, as embedded in credit ratings, are very important, but that expectations of future U.S. interest rates and volatility in those expectations are also a key determinant of emerging market spreads