Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets

Using a panel of 30 emerging market economies from 1997 to 2007, this paper investigates the determinants of country risk premiums as measured by sovereign bond spreads. Unlike previous studies, the results indicate that both fiscal and political factors matter for credit risk in emerging markets. L...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Gupta, Sanjeev
Other Authors: Mati, Amine, Baldacci, Emanuele
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2008
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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651 4 |a United States 
653 |a Fiscal stance 
653 |a National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures 
653 |a Public Administration 
653 |a Public debt 
653 |a Public investment spending 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Public finance & taxation 
653 |a Debt Management 
653 |a Debts, Public 
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653 |a Debt 
653 |a Fiscal risks 
653 |a Fiscal policy 
653 |a General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 
653 |a Other Public Investment and Capital Stock 
653 |a Sovereign Debt 
653 |a Emerging and frontier financial markets 
653 |a Public Sector Accounting and Audits 
653 |a Financial services industry 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Public investments 
653 |a Public Finance 
653 |a Finance: General 
700 1 |a Mati, Amine 
700 1 |a Baldacci, Emanuele 
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520 |a Using a panel of 30 emerging market economies from 1997 to 2007, this paper investigates the determinants of country risk premiums as measured by sovereign bond spreads. Unlike previous studies, the results indicate that both fiscal and political factors matter for credit risk in emerging markets. Lower levels of political risk are associated with tighter spreads, while efforts at fiscal consolidation narrow credit spreads, especially in countries that experienced prior defaults. The composition of fiscal policy matters: spending on public investment contributes to lower spreads as long as the fiscal position remains sustainable and the fiscal deficit does not worsen