The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks Persistence Matters

Is the relationship between the current account balance and the terms of trade affected by the persistence of terms of trade shocks? In intertemporal models of the current account that incorporate a consumption-smoothing and an investment response to shocks, the effect of the terms of trade on exter...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Cashin, Paul
Other Authors: Kent, Christopher
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2003
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks  |b Persistence Matters  |c Paul Cashin, Christopher Kent 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2003 
300 |a 48 pages 
651 4 |a Italy 
653 |a Wealth 
653 |a Exchange rate arrangements 
653 |a Terms of trade 
653 |a Current account 
653 |a Short-term Capital Movements 
653 |a Income distribution 
653 |a Currency; Foreign exchange 
653 |a Economic policy; nternational cooperation 
653 |a Saving 
653 |a Current Account Adjustment 
653 |a Balance of payments 
653 |a Consumption distribution 
653 |a Exports and Imports 
653 |a Aggregate Factor Income Distribution 
653 |a International economics 
653 |a National accounts 
653 |a Foreign Exchange 
653 |a International trade 
653 |a Current account balance 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Macroeconomics: Consumption 
653 |a Empirical Studies of Trade 
653 |a Foreign exchange 
700 1 |a Kent, Christopher 
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520 |a Is the relationship between the current account balance and the terms of trade affected by the persistence of terms of trade shocks? In intertemporal models of the current account that incorporate a consumption-smoothing and an investment response to shocks, the effect of the terms of trade on external balances is predicted to be dependent on the duration of terms of trade shocks. Using a median-unbiased estimator, an unbiased model-selection rule, and terms of trade data for 128 countries over the period 1960-99 we identify two groups of countries-those that typically experience temporary terms of trade shocks and those that typically experience permanent terms of trade shocks. The results from panel-data regressions of the two groups of countries support the theoretical predictions of the intertemporal approach to the current account. We find that the greater (lesser) the persistence of the terms of trade shock, the more (less) the investment effect dominates the consumption-smoothing effect on saving, so that the current account balance moves in the opposite (same) direction as that of the shock