Central Bank Vulnerability and the Credibility of Commitments A Value-at-Risk Approach to Currency Crises

A loss of solvency increases central bank vulnerability, reducing the credibility of commitments to defend a nominal regime, including an exchange rate peg. This paper develops a methodology to assess central bank solvency and exposure to risk. The measure, based on Value-at-Risk, is frequently used...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Schumacher, Liliana
Other Authors: Bléjer, Mario
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 1998
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
LEADER 02958nmm a2200697 u 4500
001 EB000929084
003 EBX01000000000000000722680
005 00000000000000.0
007 cr|||||||||||||||||||||
008 150128 ||| eng
020 |a 9781451962659 
100 1 |a Schumacher, Liliana 
245 0 0 |a Central Bank Vulnerability and the Credibility of Commitments  |b A Value-at-Risk Approach to Currency Crises  |c Liliana Schumacher, Mario Bléjer 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 1998 
300 |a 29 pages 
651 4 |a United States 
653 |a Payment Systems 
653 |a Banks 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Dynamic Treatment Effect Models 
653 |a Industries: Financial Services 
653 |a Banks and banking 
653 |a Regimes 
653 |a Financial sector policy and analysis 
653 |a Mortgages 
653 |a Vector autoregression 
653 |a Money 
653 |a Time-Series Models 
653 |a Standards 
653 |a Financial Institutions and Services: General 
653 |a Currencies 
653 |a Liquidation 
653 |a Banking 
653 |a Econometrics 
653 |a Econometrics & economic statistics 
653 |a Depository Institutions 
653 |a Government and the Monetary System 
653 |a Econometric analysis 
653 |a Monetary economics 
653 |a Bankruptcy 
653 |a Micro Finance Institutions 
653 |a Debt 
653 |a Diffusion Processes 
653 |a Economic sectors 
653 |a Solvency 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Monetary Systems 
653 |a Financial services industry 
653 |a Dynamic Quantile Regressions 
653 |a Bank solvency 
653 |a Money and Monetary Policy 
653 |a Finance: General 
653 |a Financial sector 
700 1 |a Bléjer, Mario 
041 0 7 |a eng  |2 ISO 639-2 
989 |b IMF  |a International Monetary Fund 
490 0 |a IMF Working Papers 
028 5 0 |a 10.5089/9781451962659.001 
856 4 0 |u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/1998/065/001.1998.issue-065-en.xml?cid=2588-com-dsp-marc  |x Verlag  |3 Volltext 
082 0 |a 330 
520 |a A loss of solvency increases central bank vulnerability, reducing the credibility of commitments to defend a nominal regime, including an exchange rate peg. This paper develops a methodology to assess central bank solvency and exposure to risk. The measure, based on Value-at-Risk, is frequently used to evaluate commercial risk. The paper emphasizes that the ability to sustain nominal commitments cannot be gauged by focusing only on selected accounts (such as reserves), but requires a comprehensive solvency and vulnerability analysis of the monetary authorities’ complete portfolio (including off-balance-sheet operations). The suggested measure has powerful reporting value and its disclosure could improve monitoring of sovereign solvency risk