IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2
This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plaus...
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| Format: | eBook |
| Language: | English |
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Washington, D.C.
International Monetary Fund
1999
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| Series: | IMF Staff Papers
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| Collection: | International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa |
| Summary: | This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. The study suggests, though, that although forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crises, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited |
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| Physical Description: | 148 pages |
| ISBN: | 9781451974201 |