Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources—Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yi...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Ghosh, Atish
Other Authors: Zalduendo, Juan, Goretti, Manuela, Joshi, Bikas
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2007
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
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Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
Description
Summary:This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results
Physical Description:44 pages
ISBN:9781451866346