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150128 ||| eng |
| 020 |
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|a 9781451851144
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| 100 |
1 |
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|a Mulder, Christian
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| 245 |
0 |
0 |
|a External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies
|b How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion
|c Christian Mulder, Matthieu Bussière
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| 260 |
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|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 1999
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| 300 |
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|a 41 pages
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| 651 |
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4 |
|a Russian Federation
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| 653 |
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|a Economic & financial crises & disasters
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| 653 |
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|a Credit
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| 653 |
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|a Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation
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| 653 |
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|a Short-term Capital Movements
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| 653 |
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|a Financial crises
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| 653 |
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|a Monetary economics
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| 653 |
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|a Currency; Foreign exchange
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| 653 |
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|a Value of Firms
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| 653 |
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|a Current Account Adjustment
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| 653 |
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|a Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General
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| 653 |
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|a Balance of payments
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| 653 |
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|a Real effective exchange rates
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| 653 |
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|a Crisis management
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| 653 |
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|a Exports and Imports
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| 653 |
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|a International economics
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| 653 |
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|a Money
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| 653 |
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|a Foreign Exchange
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| 653 |
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|a Capital and Ownership Structure
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| 653 |
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|a Goodwill
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| 653 |
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|a Real exchange rates
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| 653 |
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|a Early warning systems
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| 653 |
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|a Financial Risk and Risk Management
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| 653 |
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|a Financing Policy
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| 653 |
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|a Financial Risk Management
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| 653 |
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|a Money and Monetary Policy
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| 653 |
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|a Foreign exchange
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| 653 |
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|a Current account deficits
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Bussière, Matthieu
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| 041 |
0 |
7 |
|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
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| 989 |
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|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
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| 490 |
0 |
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|a IMF Working Papers
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| 028 |
5 |
0 |
|a 10.5089/9781451851144.001
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| 856 |
4 |
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|u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/1999/088/001.1999.issue-088-en.xml?cid=3144-com-dsp-marc
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
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| 082 |
0 |
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|a 330
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| 520 |
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|a This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis episodes can be well explained by a parsimonious set of core fundamentals and liquidity related variables; and (iii) the presence of an IMF-supported program significantly reduced the depth of crises. The results suggest that as a rule of thumb countries should hold reserves to the tune of short-term debt to avoid contagion-related crises, provided their current deficits are modest and their real effective exchange rates are not significantly misaligned
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