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Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs

Year-ahead forecasts of tax revenues incorporated into IMF programs for low-income countries, from 1993 to 1999, are compared with the corresponding outturns. The accuracy of these forecasts was low, with a mean absolute percentage error of 16 percent. Forecasts of tax revenues as a percentage of GD...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Golosov, Mikhail
Other Authors: King, John
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2002
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Revenue Administration
Budget Systems
Public Finance & Taxation
Economic Forecasting
Taxation And Subsidies: Other
Budget Planning And Preparation
Revenue Forecasting
Budgeting
National Accounts
National Income
Gdp Forecasting
Taxation, Subsidies, And Revenue: General
Tax Policy
Budget
Macroeconomics
Tax Administration And Procedure
Public Financial Management (pfm)
Debt Bias
Budgeting & Financial Management
National Budget
Taxation
Public Finance
Revenue
Forecasting And Simulation: Models And Applications
United States
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
Description
Summary:Year-ahead forecasts of tax revenues incorporated into IMF programs for low-income countries, from 1993 to 1999, are compared with the corresponding outturns. The accuracy of these forecasts was low, with a mean absolute percentage error of 16 percent. Forecasts of tax revenues as a percentage of GDP were biased upwards, but there was no significant bias in forecasts of nominal tax revenues. Upward bias in the tax revenue forecasts was associated with subsequent interruptions to the program, and the length of time between the commencement of the program and the beginning of the year for which the forecast was made
Physical Description:23 pages
ISBN:9781451875690

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