Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New Eu Member States What Did the Great Recession Change?

The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real misal...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Smídková, Katerina
Other Authors: Babecky, Jan, Bulir, Ales
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2010
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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653 |a International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions 
653 |a Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation 
653 |a Balance of trade 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Financial Aspects of Economic Integration 
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653 |a Currency 
653 |a Trade: General 
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653 |a International Lending and Debt Problems 
653 |a International economics 
653 |a External debt 
653 |a Debts, External 
653 |a Foreign Exchange 
653 |a International trade 
653 |a Exports 
653 |a Real exchange rates 
653 |a Empirical Studies of Trade 
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520 |a The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real misalignments in several countries with pegged exchange rates and excessive external liabilities widened relative to earlier estimates. While countries with balanced net trade positions are expected to continue to experience appreciation during 2010-2014, several currencies are likely to require real depreciation to maintain sustainable net external debt. Our estimates point to somewhat larger disequilibria than those of IMF country teams, however, any estimates of equilibrium exchange rates are subject to sizable uncertainty