Inflation Dynamics in Asia Causes, Changes, and Spillovers From China

The perception that Asia's inflation dynamics is driven by idiosyncratic supply shocks implies, as a corollary, that there is little scope for a policy reaction to a build-up of inflationary pressures. However, Asia's fast growth and integration over the last two decades suggest that the d...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Osorio-Buitron, Carolina
Other Authors: Unsal, Filiz
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2011
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Inflation Dynamics in Asia  |b Causes, Changes, and Spillovers From China  |c Carolina Osorio-Buitron, Filiz Unsal 
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300 |a 20 pages 
651 4 |a China, People's Republic of 
653 |a Supply and demand 
653 |a International finance 
653 |a Inflation 
653 |a Externalities 
653 |a Economic Theory 
653 |a Dynamic Treatment Effect Models 
653 |a Output gap 
653 |a Financial sector policy and analysis 
653 |a Deflation 
653 |a Proportions 
653 |a Production 
653 |a Supply shocks 
653 |a Diffusion Processes 
653 |a Economic theory & philosophy 
653 |a Spillovers 
653 |a Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models 
653 |a Time-Series Models 
653 |a Macroeconomics: Production 
653 |a Price Level 
653 |a International Policy Coordination and Transmission 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Commodity prices 
653 |a Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis 
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520 |a The perception that Asia's inflation dynamics is driven by idiosyncratic supply shocks implies, as a corollary, that there is little scope for a policy reaction to a build-up of inflationary pressures. However, Asia's fast growth and integration over the last two decades suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed, and that domestic demand pressures may now play a larger role than in the past. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of inflation dynamics in Asia using a Global VAR (GVAR) model, which explicitly incorporates the role of regional and global spillovers in driving Asia's inflation. Our results suggest that over the past two decades the main drivers of inflation in Asia have been monetary and supply shocks, but also that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks has fallen, whereas demand-side pressures have started to emerge as an important contributor to inflation in Asia