IMF Staff papers Volume 29 No. 3

This paper examines the effects of the emergence of the United Kingdom as a major oil producer, together with the pursuit of firm financial policies as part of an anti-inflation strategy, has had on the UK economy and, in particular, on the real exchange rate of the pound sterling, which appreciated...

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Bibliographic Details
Corporate Author: International Monetary Fund Research Dept
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 1982
Series:IMF Staff Papers
Subjects:
Oil
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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651 4 |a United Kingdom 
653 |a Depository Institutions 
653 |a Energy: Demand and Supply 
653 |a Inflation 
653 |a Income 
653 |a Oil prices 
653 |a Banks 
653 |a Labour; income economics 
653 |a Public finance & taxation 
653 |a Banks and banking 
653 |a Oil 
653 |a Currency; Foreign exchange 
653 |a Deflation 
653 |a Micro Finance Institutions 
653 |a Mortgages 
653 |a Petroleum industry and trade 
653 |a Labor 
653 |a Commodities 
653 |a Energy: General 
653 |a Price Level 
653 |a Foreign Exchange 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Labor Economics: General 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Banking 
653 |a Real exchange rates 
653 |a Investment & securities 
653 |a Foreign exchange 
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520 |a This paper examines the effects of the emergence of the United Kingdom as a major oil producer, together with the pursuit of firm financial policies as part of an anti-inflation strategy, has had on the UK economy and, in particular, on the real exchange rate of the pound sterling, which appreciated by 45 percent between 1977 and late 1981. The build-up of North Sea oil production and the rise in the real price of oil have led to a significant change in the structure of the UK economy. A small dynamic macro model of the United Kingdom has been constructed to assess the quantitative importance of North Sea oil production on the economy as well as the main effects of the anti-inflation strategy. The results indicate that both direct and indirect effects of oil production on the real exchange rate and, consequently, on the manufacturing sector are large. The results also indicate that a policy of financial restraint would be successful in reducing inflation, although its costs in the short term would be high, largely because inflation expectations do not appear to adjust rapidly