Modeling with Limited Data Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia

This paper proposes a framework to analyze long-term potential growth that combines a simple quantitative model with an investigative approach of ‘growth diagnostics’. The framework is used to forecast potential growth for Cambodia, and to conduct simulations about the main drivers of growth in that...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2012
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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100 1 |a Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai 
245 0 0 |a Modeling with Limited Data  |b Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia  |c Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2012 
300 |a 18 pages 
651 4 |a Cambodia 
653 |a One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models 
653 |a Labour; income economics 
653 |a Potential output 
653 |a Output gap 
653 |a Productivity 
653 |a Capital and Total Factor Productivity 
653 |a Cost 
653 |a Industrial productivity 
653 |a Production 
653 |a Total factor productivity 
653 |a Production; Economic theory 
653 |a Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation 
653 |a Labor 
653 |a Macroeconomics: Production 
653 |a Forecasting and Other Model Applications 
653 |a Labor Economics: General 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Capacity 
653 |a Production and Operations Management 
653 |a Labor economics 
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989 |b IMF  |a International Monetary Fund 
490 0 |a IMF Working Papers 
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520 |a This paper proposes a framework to analyze long-term potential growth that combines a simple quantitative model with an investigative approach of ‘growth diagnostics’. The framework is used to forecast potential growth for Cambodia, and to conduct simulations about the main drivers of growth in that country. The main result is that Cambodia compares less favorably against other lower-income Asian economies in terms of its investment rate, which in turn is constrained by the poor quality of its infrastructure. Bridging this gap can lift Cambodia’s potential growth by more than one percentage point