Exchange Rate Expectations Survey of Survey Studies

This paper presents a brief survey of the empirical literature on survey-based exchange rate expectations. The literature in general supports the presence of a non-zero risk premium and rejects the hypothesis of rational expectations. The crucial result is that, while short-run expectations tend to...

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Bibliographic Details
Corporate Author: International Monetary Fund
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 1990
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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653 |a Government and the Monetary System 
653 |a Payment Systems 
653 |a Investment 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Return on investment 
653 |a Regimes 
653 |a Monetary economics 
653 |a Exchange rate adjustments 
653 |a Currency 
653 |a Intangible Capital 
653 |a National accounts 
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653 |a Investments: General 
653 |a Currencies 
653 |a Monetary Systems 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Capacity 
653 |a Foreign exchange market 
653 |a Exchange rates 
653 |a Capital 
653 |a Money and Monetary Policy 
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520 |a This paper presents a brief survey of the empirical literature on survey-based exchange rate expectations. The literature in general supports the presence of a non-zero risk premium and rejects the hypothesis of rational expectations. The crucial result is that, while short-run expectations tend to move away from some long-run “normal” values, long-run expectations tend to regress toward them. If this nature of short-run expectations increases the volatility of exchange rate movements, there may be a basis for some official measure to minimize short-run exchange rate movements