Realignment Expectations, Forward Rate Bias, and Sterilized Intervention in an Adjustable Peg Exchange Rate Model with Policy Optimization

The paper models an adjustable peg exchange rate arrangement as a policy rule with an escape clause under which the timing and magnitudes of realignments are the outcomes of policy optimization decisions. Under the assumptions that market participants are rational, risk averse, and fully informed ab...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Isard, Peter
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 1994
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Realignment Expectations, Forward Rate Bias, and Sterilized Intervention in an Adjustable Peg Exchange Rate Model with Policy Optimization  |c Peter Isard 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 1994 
300 |a 32 pages 
653 |a Foreign exchange reserves 
653 |a Rational expectations 
653 |a Investment 
653 |a Economic Theory 
653 |a Return on investment 
653 |a Currency; Foreign exchange 
653 |a Expectations 
653 |a Economic theory & philosophy 
653 |a Intangible Capital 
653 |a Foreign Exchange 
653 |a Saving and investment 
653 |a International reserves 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Investments: General 
653 |a Rational expectations; Economic theory 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Banking 
653 |a Capacity 
653 |a Exchange rates 
653 |a Capital 
653 |a Monetary Policy 
653 |a Foreign exchange 
653 |a Speculations 
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989 |b IMF  |a International Monetary Fund 
490 0 |a IMF Working Papers 
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520 |a The paper models an adjustable peg exchange rate arrangement as a policy rule with an escape clause under which the timing and magnitudes of realignments are the outcomes of policy optimization decisions. Under the assumptions that market participants are rational, risk averse, and fully informed about the incentives of policymakers, the analysis focuses on the implications for relating realignment expectations to the state variables that enter the policy objective function, for modeling the bias in using forward exchange rates to predict future spot rates, and for characterizing the effectiveness of sterilized intervention