On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks The Role of Storage

Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Unalmis, Deren
Other Authors: Unalmis, Ibrahim, Unsal, Filiz
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2012
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Oil
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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300 |a 41 pages 
651 4 |a United States 
653 |a Supply and demand 
653 |a Energy: Demand and Supply 
653 |a Inflation 
653 |a Commodity price fluctuations 
653 |a Oil prices 
653 |a Economic Theory 
653 |a Oil 
653 |a Keynesian 
653 |a Investments: Energy 
653 |a Deflation 
653 |a Supply shocks 
653 |a General Aggregative Models: Keynes 
653 |a Economic theory & philosophy 
653 |a Petroleum industry and trade 
653 |a Commodities 
653 |a Price Level 
653 |a Energy: General 
653 |a Energy and the Macroeconomy 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Post-Keynesian 
653 |a Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis 
653 |a Economic theory 
653 |a Investment & securities 
653 |a Commodity Markets 
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700 1 |a Unsal, Filiz 
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520 |a Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock