Four Decades of Terms-of-Trade Booms Saving-Investment Patterns and a New Metric of Income Windfall

We study the history of terms-of-trade booms (during 1970–2012), with a focus on Latin America, through the prisms of a simple metric that quantifies the associated income windfall. We also document saving patterns during these episodes and propose a measure of how much of the income windfall was sa...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Adler, Gustavo
Other Authors: Magud, Nicolas
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2013
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Four Decades of Terms-of-Trade Booms  |b Saving-Investment Patterns and a New Metric of Income Windfall  |c Gustavo Adler, Nicolas Magud 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2013 
300 |a 32 pages 
651 4 |a Bolivia 
653 |a Economic policy 
653 |a Wealth 
653 |a Investments, Foreign 
653 |a Income 
653 |a Terms of trade 
653 |a Short-term Capital Movements 
653 |a Trade: Other 
653 |a Saving 
653 |a Personal income 
653 |a Current Account Adjustment 
653 |a Balance of payments 
653 |a Open Economy Macroeconomics 
653 |a Long-term Capital Movements 
653 |a External position 
653 |a Exports and Imports 
653 |a International economics 
653 |a Domestic savings 
653 |a Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions 
653 |a National accounts 
653 |a Foreign assets 
653 |a Saving and investment 
653 |a International trade 
653 |a Current account balance 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Macroeconomics: Consumption 
653 |a Empirical Studies of Trade 
653 |a Nternational cooperation 
653 |a International Investment 
700 1 |a Magud, Nicolas 
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520 |a We study the history of terms-of-trade booms (during 1970–2012), with a focus on Latin America, through the prisms of a simple metric that quantifies the associated income windfall. We also document saving patterns during these episodes and propose a measure of how much of the income windfall was saved. We find that Latin America‘s terms-of-trade shocks of the last decade have not differed much in magnitude from those observed during the 1970s, but that the associated windfall have been substantially larger. While aggregate saving increased more than in past episodes, the share of the windfall saved (the marginal saving rate) seems to be lower, suggesting that greater aggregate saving reflects mainly the sheer size of the windfall rather than a greater 'effort' to save it. Finally, we find evidence that, while savings during the boom help to increase post-boom income, the composition of such savings matters. Specifically, in past episodes, savings allocated to foreign asset accumulation appear to have contributed more to post-boom income than those devoted to domestic investment