Cross-Country Linkages in Europe A Global VAR Analysis

This paper uses the Global VAR (GVAR) model proposed by Pesaran et al. (2004) to study cross-country linkages among euro area countries, other advanced European countries (including the Nordics, the UK, etc.), and the Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. An innovative featur...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Sun, Yan
Other Authors: Heinz, Frigyes, Ho, Giang
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2013
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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651 4 |a Russian Federation 
653 |a Interest rates 
653 |a Inflation 
653 |a Credit 
653 |a Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Econometric analysis 
653 |a Dynamic Treatment Effect Models 
653 |a Monetary economics 
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653 |a Diffusion Processes 
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653 |a Money 
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653 |a Macroeconomics: Production 
653 |a Price Level 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 
653 |a Econometrics 
653 |a Dynamic Quantile Regressions 
653 |a Long term interest rates 
653 |a Econometrics & economic statistics 
653 |a State Space Models 
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520 |a This paper uses the Global VAR (GVAR) model proposed by Pesaran et al. (2004) to study cross-country linkages among euro area countries, other advanced European countries (including the Nordics, the UK, etc.), and the Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. An innovative feature of the paper is the use of combined trade and financial weights (based on BIS reporting banks’ external position data) to capture the very close trade and financial ties of the CESEE countries with the advanced Europe countries. The results show strong co-movements in output growth and interest rates but weaker linkages bewteen inflation and real credit growth within Europe. While the euro area is the dominant source of economic influences, there are also interesting subregional linkages, e.g. between the Nordic and the Baltic countries, and a small but notable impact of CESEE countries on the rest of the Europe