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150128 ||| eng |
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|a 9781484345726
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| 100 |
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|a Anand, Rahul
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| 245 |
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|a Potential Growth in Emerging Asia
|c Rahul Anand, Kevin Cheng, Sidra Rehman, Longmei Zhang
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| 260 |
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|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 2014
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| 300 |
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|a 26 pages
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Cheng, Kevin
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| 700 |
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|a Rehman, Sidra
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| 700 |
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|a Zhang, Longmei
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| 041 |
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7 |
|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
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| 989 |
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|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
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| 490 |
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|a IMF Working Papers
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| 028 |
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|a 10.5089/9781484345726.001
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| 856 |
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|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2014/002/001.2014.issue-002-en.xml
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
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|a 330
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|a Using three distinct approaches-statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model- this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993-2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms
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