1 Table of Contents: “...The primary way to account for uncertainty in health economic evaluation is probabilistic...”

2 Table of Contents: “...Contents: Uncertainty and probability -- The nature of elicitation and probability -- Uncertainty...”

3 Table of Contents: “...Contents: Fundamentals of elicitation -- Challenges for subjective probability judgments -- Sources...”

4 Table of Contents: “... -- Conditional probabilities...”

5 Table of Contents: “...Contents: Coalescent theory -- Wright-Fisher population model -- The probability of having...”

6 Subjects: “...Probabilities...”

7 Subjects: “...Probability...”

8 Subjects: “...Probability...”

9 Subjects: “...Probability...”

10 Table of Contents: “...Bayes theorem -- Spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage -- Bayesian approach -- Pretest probability...”

11 Table of Contents: “...Censoring -- Truncation -- Survival probability -- Failure probability -- Probability Density...”

12 Table of Contents: “... and infectious -- NK cell activation probably enhances HCV clearance -- NK cell activation probably protects...”

13 Table of Contents: “... affecting the probability of mechanical transmission events -- Ways to reduce the probability of mechanical...”

14 Table of Contents: “...Contents: Emergence of new variants and their new evolutionarily advantageous traits -- Probability...”

15 Table of Contents: “... for developmental plasticity -- Probabilistic developmental epigenetic model -- Testing the model -- The importance...”

16 Table of Contents: “... positive report probability -- Permutation testing...”

17 Table of Contents: “...Community vaccine development goals -- Increasing probability of success and reducing risk...”

18 Table of Contents: “...Sequential analysis in genome wide linkage and association scans -- Sequential probability ratio...”

19 Table of Contents: “... -- Potential value of biomarkers and personalized medicine to enhance probability of success -- Challenges...”

20 Table of Contents: “... -- Why has it not been selected out? -- Sadness is adaptive but depression is probably not -- Depression...”