COVID-19 Impact and Mitigation Policies: A Didactic Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Model Approach

We develop an integrated epidemiological-macroeconomic model to analyze the interplay between the COVID-19 outbreak and economic activity, as a tool for capacity building purposes. We illustrate a workhorse framework that combines a rich epidemiological model with an economic block to shed light on...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Ansah, John
Other Authors: Epstein, Natan, Nalban, Valeriu
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2020
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a COVID-19 Impact and Mitigation Policies: A Didactic Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Model Approach  |c John Ansah, Natan Epstein, Valeriu Nalban 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2020 
300 |a 28 pages 
651 4 |a Malaysia 
653 |a Health 
653 |a Infectious & contagious diseases 
653 |a Covid-19 
653 |a Labor markets 
653 |a General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation 
653 |a Health and Fitness 
653 |a Labor 
653 |a Health economics 
653 |a Population and demographics 
653 |a Policy Objectives 
653 |a Policy Coordination 
653 |a Demography 
653 |a Population 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Diseases: Contagious 
653 |a Communicable diseases 
653 |a Income economics 
653 |a Population & demography 
653 |a Labour 
653 |a Demographic Economics: General 
653 |a Computational Techniques 
653 |a Policy Designs and Consistency 
653 |a Regulation 
653 |a Demand and Supply of Labor: General 
653 |a Health Behavior 
653 |a Crisis Management 
653 |a Health: General 
653 |a Social Science 
653 |a Labor Economics: General 
653 |a Labor market 
653 |a Public Health 
653 |a Business and Economics 
653 |a Health: Government Policy 
653 |a Labor economics 
700 1 |a Epstein, Natan 
700 1 |a Nalban, Valeriu 
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520 |a We develop an integrated epidemiological-macroeconomic model to analyze the interplay between the COVID-19 outbreak and economic activity, as a tool for capacity building purposes. We illustrate a workhorse framework that combines a rich epidemiological model with an economic block to shed light on the tradeoffs between saving lives and preserving economic outcomes under various mitigation policies and scenarios calibrated for emerging market and developing economies. In our benchmark setup, we link the effective contact frequency and labor supply decisions to the current state of the disease progression, allowing for relevant behavioral responses that introduce multiple feedback channels. We showcase the effects of various “smart” mitigation measures, e.g. improved quarantine capacity or targeted labor market restrictions, to alleviate the tradeoffs between health-related outcomes and economic activity, including in response to a second infection wave. The discovery of treatment or vaccine, and the possibility of temporary immunity for the recovered individuals are also considered. The model is further extended to a multisector framework to analyze the sectoral allocation effects of the COVID-19 shock