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240607 ||| eng |
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|a 9798400266751
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|a Cebotari, Aliona
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|a Political Fragility: Coups d’État and Their Drivers
|c Aliona Cebotari, Enrique Chueca-Montuenga, Yoro Diallo, Yunsheng Ma, Rima Turk, Weining Xin, Harold Zavarce
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| 260 |
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|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 2024
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|a 66 pages
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|a Fiscal stance
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| 653 |
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|a Econometric Modeling: General
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| 653 |
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|a Economics
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|a Income
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| 653 |
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|a Conflict
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| 653 |
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|a Fiscal Policy
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|a National accounts
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| 653 |
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|a Economics of specific sectors
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| 653 |
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|a Population and demographics
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| 653 |
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|a Currency crises
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|a Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
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|a Demography
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|a Population
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|a Macroeconomics
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|a Population & demography
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|a Economic & financial crises & disasters
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|a Machine learning
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|a Technological Change: Choices and Consequences
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| 653 |
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|a Demographic Economics: General
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|a Technology
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|a Environment
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| 653 |
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|a Economics: General
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|a Informal sector
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|a Diffusion Processes
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|a Intelligence (AI) & Semantics
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|a Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
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| 653 |
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|a Fiscal policy
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|a Alliances
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|a Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
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| 653 |
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|a Conflict Resolution
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|a Chueca-Montuenga, Enrique
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|a Diallo, Yoro
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|a Ma, Yunsheng
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|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
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|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
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| 490 |
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a 10.5089/9798400266751.001
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|u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2024/034/001.2024.issue-034-en.xml?cid=544943-com-dsp-marc
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
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|a 330
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|a The paper explores the drivers of political fragility by focusing on coups d’état as symptomatic of such fragility. It uses event studies to identify factors that exhibit significantly different dynamics in the runup to coups, and machine learning to identify these stressors and more structural determinants of fragility—as well as their nonlinear interactions—that create an environment propitious to coups. The paper finds that the destabilization of a country’s economic, political or security environment—such as low growth, high inflation, weak external positions, political instability and conflict—set the stage for a higher likelihood of coups, with overlapping stressors amplifying each other. These stressors are more likely to lead to breakdowns in political systems when demographic pressures and underlying structural weaknesses (especially poverty, exclusion, and weak governance) are present or when policies are weaker, through complex interactions. Conversely, strengthened fundamentals and macropolicies have higher returns in structurally fragile environments in terms of staving off political breakdowns, suggesting that continued engagement by multilateral institutions and donors in fragile situations is likely to yield particularly high dividends. The model performs well in predicting coups out of sample, having predicted a high probability of most 2020-23 coups, including in the Sahel region
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