Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation

The surge in energy prices in 2022 has been a defining factor behind the increase in euro area inflation. We assess the impact of “unconventional fiscal policy,” defined as the set of fiscal measures, possibly expansionary, motivated by a desire to mute the effects of the increase in energy prices a...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Dao, Mai
Other Authors: Dizioli, Allan, Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, Jackson, Chris
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2023
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation  |c Mai Dao, Allan Dizioli, Chris Jackson, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Daniel Leigh 
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653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Demand and Supply of Labor: General 
653 |a Fiscal policy 
653 |a Energy industries & utilities 
653 |a Economics of specific sectors 
653 |a Inflation targeting 
653 |a Stabilization 
653 |a Treasury Policy 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Inflation 
653 |a Energy prices 
653 |a Labor 
653 |a Labor market 
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653 |a Labour 
653 |a Economics 
653 |a Currency crises 
653 |a Central Banks and Their Policies 
653 |a Public Finance 
653 |a Money and Monetary Policy 
653 |a Deflation 
653 |a Energy: Demand and Supply 
653 |a Price Level 
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520 |a The surge in energy prices in 2022 has been a defining factor behind the increase in euro area inflation. We assess the impact of “unconventional fiscal policy,” defined as the set of fiscal measures, possibly expansionary, motivated by a desire to mute the effects of the increase in energy prices and to lower inflation. Overall, we find that these unconventional measures reduced euro area inflation by 1 to 2 percentage points in 2022 and may avoid an undershoot later on. When nonlinearities in the Phillips curve are taken into account, the net effect is to reduce inflation by about 0.5 percentage points in 2021-24, and keep it nearer to its target. About one-third to one-half of the reduction in 2022 reflects the direct effects of the measures on headline inflation, with much of the remainder reflecting the lower pass-through to core inflation. The fiscal measures were deficit-financed but had limited effects on raising inflation by stimulating demand and instead modestly helped to stabilize longer-term inflation expectations. Looking ahead, the prospective decline in inflation in the euro area is partly due to fortunate circumstances, with energy prices falling from their 2022 peaks and their pass-through effects fading, and with less economic overheating than in economies such as the United States. Implementing similar measures in the face of a more persistent increase in energy prices, or in a more overheated economy, would have caused a more persistent rise in core inflation