Drivers of Inflation Hungary

Though high and rising inflation has been a challenge for most economies across Europe in 2022 and into 2023, it has accelerated in Hungary to the highest level in Europe. This paper examines how and why Hungary reached historically high inflation. It draws on an augmented Phillips Curve to estimate...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Cohn-Bech, Estefania
Other Authors: Foda, Karim, Roitman, Agustin
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2023
Series:Selected Issues Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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653 |a Energy: Demand and Supply 
653 |a Producer prices 
653 |a International Organizations 
653 |a Labour 
653 |a Monetary economics 
653 |a Policy Designs and Consistency 
653 |a International agencies 
653 |a Deflation 
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653 |a Prices 
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520 |a Though high and rising inflation has been a challenge for most economies across Europe in 2022 and into 2023, it has accelerated in Hungary to the highest level in Europe. This paper examines how and why Hungary reached historically high inflation. It draws on an augmented Phillips Curve to estimate the impact of common drivers of inflation, examines the role of labor market tightness and policy stances, and analyzes possible changes to the degree of exchange rate pass-through in recent years. Overall, a rapid recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, a series of exogenous shocks, and too loose a policy mix fueled inflation to its highest level in decades. Though monetary and fiscal policies are now tightening, regulatory price caps undermine those efforts. Going forward, a consistently and persistently tight overall policy mix is needed to drive inflation back to the central bank’s target