Aid Inflows And The Real Effective Exchange Rate In Tanzania

Tanzania is well placed to receive a significant increase in aid inflows in coming years. Despite the potential for the additional aid inflows to raise income levels in the country, increasing them may bring about structural changes in the economy that may be unwelcome. One such change is an appreci...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Li, Ying
Other Authors: Rowe, Francis
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C The World Bank 2008
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: World Bank E-Library Archive - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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653 |a Macroeconomics and Economic Growth 
653 |a Currencies and Exchange Rates 
653 |a Trade Movements 
653 |a Emerging Markets 
653 |a International Competitiveness 
653 |a Economic Stabilization 
653 |a Economic Policy 
653 |a Real Exchange Rate 
653 |a Export Competitiveness 
653 |a Poverty Reduction 
653 |a Depreciation 
653 |a Debt Markets 
653 |a Private Sector Development 
653 |a Equilibrium 
653 |a Finance and Financial Sector Development 
653 |a Economic Theory and Research 
653 |a Trade Liberalization 
653 |a Real Effective Exchange Rate 
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520 |a Tanzania is well placed to receive a significant increase in aid inflows in coming years. Despite the potential for the additional aid inflows to raise income levels in the country, increasing them may bring about structural changes in the economy that may be unwelcome. One such change is an appreciation of the real exchange rate that leads to a contraction of traditional export sectors and a loss of export competitiveness. This paper employs a reduced-form equilibrium real exchange rate approach to explain movements in Tanzania's real effective exchange in recent decades. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between aid inflows and the real effective exchange rate. The authors find that the long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate is influenced by terms of trade movements, the government's trade liberalization efforts, and aid inflows. Positive terms-of-trade movements are associated with an appreciation, periods of improving trade liberalization are associated with a depreciation, and increases in aid inflows are associated with a depreciation in the real effective exchange rate. Although the last result is non-standard, it is not empirically unique and does have theoretical underpinnings. A detailed analysis of this relationship over the last decade shows that the Bank of Tanzania's response to aid inflows is likely the main reason for the finding