More Growth Or Fewer Collapses ? A New Look At Long Run Growth In Sub-Saharan Africa

Low and highly volatile growth define Africa's growth experience. But there is no evidence that growth volatility is associated to long term economic performance. This result may be misleading if it suggests that volatility is not important for economic and social progress. In this paper we use...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Arbache, Jorge Saba
Other Authors: Page, John
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C The World Bank 2007
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: World Bank E-Library Archive - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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653 |a Macroeconomics and Economic Growth 
653 |a Public Policy 
653 |a Governance Indicators 
653 |a Pro-Poor Growth 
653 |a Health, Nutrition and Population 
653 |a Economic Conditions 
653 |a Human Development 
653 |a Governance 
653 |a Country Data 
653 |a Growth Performance 
653 |a Economic Growth 
653 |a Growth Rate 
653 |a Social Outcomes 
653 |a Poverty Reduction 
653 |a Per Capita Income 
653 |a Nutrition 
653 |a Economic Conditions and Volatility 
653 |a Economic Performance 
653 |a Growth Rates 
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700 1 |a Arbache, Jorge Saba 
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520 |a Low and highly volatile growth define Africa's growth experience. But there is no evidence that growth volatility is associated to long term economic performance. This result may be misleading if it suggests that volatility is not important for economic and social progress. In this paper we use a variant of the method developed by Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrik (2005) to identify both growth acceleration and deceleration episodes in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors find that Africa has had numerous growth acceleration episodes in the last 30 years, but also nearly a comparable number of growth collapses, offsetting most of the benefits of growth. Had Africa avoided its growth collapses, it would have grown 1.7 percent a year instead of 0.7 percent, and its GDP per capita would have been more than 30 percent higher in 2005. The authors also find that growth accelerations and decelerations have an asymmetric impact on human development outcomes. Finally, our results suggest that it is easier to identify the likely institutional and policy origins of growth decelerations than of growth accelerations