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220928 ||| eng |
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|a 9781513582306
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| 100 |
1 |
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|a Chen, Sally
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| 245 |
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0 |
|a Financial Cycles – Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises?
|c Sally Chen, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka
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| 260 |
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|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 2021
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| 300 |
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|a 79 pages
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| 651 |
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4 |
|a United States
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| 653 |
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|a Land prices
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| 653 |
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|a Money and Monetary Policy
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| 653 |
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|a Cycles
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| 653 |
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|a Business Fluctuations
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| 653 |
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|a Monetary economics
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| 653 |
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|a Currency crises
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| 653 |
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|a Informal sector
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| 653 |
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|a Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General
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| 653 |
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|a Financial sector policy and analysis
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| 653 |
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|a Financial Risk Management
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| 653 |
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|a Foreign Exchange
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| 653 |
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|a Financial Crises
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| 653 |
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|a Crisis management
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| 653 |
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|a Credit
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| 653 |
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|a Macroeconomics
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| 653 |
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|a Economics: General
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| 653 |
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|a Real Estate
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| 653 |
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|a Property & real estate
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| 653 |
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|a Banking crises
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| 653 |
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|a Money
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| 653 |
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|a Business cycles
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| 653 |
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|a Informal Economy
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| 653 |
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|a Economics of specific sectors
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| 653 |
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|a Economic growth
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| 653 |
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|a Economics
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| 653 |
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|a Financial cycles
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| 653 |
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|a Housing
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| 653 |
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|a Prices
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| 653 |
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|a Economic & financial crises & disasters
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| 653 |
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|a Underground Econom
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| 653 |
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|a Banks and Banking
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| 653 |
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|a International Economics
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| 653 |
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|a Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
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| 653 |
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|a Financial crises
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| 653 |
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|a Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Svirydzenka, Katsiaryna
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| 041 |
0 |
7 |
|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
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| 989 |
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|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
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| 490 |
0 |
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|a IMF Working Papers
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| 028 |
5 |
0 |
|a 10.5089/9781513582306.001
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| 856 |
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|u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2021/116/001.2021.issue-116-en.xml?cid=50257-com-dsp-marc
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
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| 082 |
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|a 330
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| 520 |
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|a Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers
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