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220928 ||| eng |
| 020 |
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|a 9781513557748
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| 100 |
1 |
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|a Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem
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| 245 |
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|a COVID-19 and SME Failures
|c Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Veronika Penciakova, Nick Sander
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| 260 |
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|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 2020
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| 300 |
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|a 55 pages
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| 651 |
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4 |
|a Czech Republic
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| 653 |
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|a Labour
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| 653 |
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|a Labor Economics: General
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| 653 |
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|a Prices
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| 653 |
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|a Economic theory
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| 653 |
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|a Health
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| 653 |
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|a Labor
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| 653 |
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|a Labor supply
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| 653 |
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|a Supply and demand
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| 653 |
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|a Labor economics
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| 653 |
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|a Economic Theory
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| 653 |
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|a Labor market
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| 653 |
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|a Income economics
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| 653 |
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|a Economic theory & philosophy
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| 653 |
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|a Infectious & contagious diseases
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| 653 |
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|a Demand and Supply of Labor: General
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| 653 |
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|a Supply shocks
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| 653 |
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|a Macroeconomics
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| 653 |
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|a Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General
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| 653 |
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|a Diseases: Contagious
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| 653 |
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|a Wages
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| 653 |
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|a Health Behavior
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| 653 |
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|a Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis
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| 653 |
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|a Covid-19
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| 653 |
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|a Communicable diseases
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Penciakova, Veronika
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Sander, Nick
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| 041 |
0 |
7 |
|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
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| 989 |
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|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
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| 490 |
0 |
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|a IMF Working Papers
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| 028 |
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|a 10.5089/9781513557748.001
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| 856 |
4 |
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|u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2020/207/001.2020.issue-207-en.xml?cid=49753-com-dsp-marc
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
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| 082 |
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|a 330
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| 520 |
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|a We estimate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on business failures among small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in seventeen countries using a large representative firm-level database. We use a simple model of firm cost-minimization and measure each firm's liquidity shortfall during and after COVID-19. Our framework allows for a rich combination of sectoral and aggregate supply, productivity, and demand shocks. We estimate a large increase in the failure rate of SMEs under COVID-19 of nearly 9 percentage points, ab-sent government support. Accommodation & Food Services, Arts, Entertainment & Recreation, Education, and Other Services are among the most affected sectors. The jobs at risk due to COVID-19 related SME business failures represent 3.1 percent of private sector employment. Despite the large impact on business failures and employment, we estimate only moderate effects on the financial sector: the share of Non Performing Loans on bank balance sheets would increase by up to 11 percentage points, representing 0.3 percent of banks' assets and resulting in a 0.75 percentage point decline in the common equity Tier-1 capital ratio. We evaluate the cost and effectiveness of various policy interventions. The fiscal cost of an intervention that narrowly targets at risk firms can be modest (0.54% of GDP). However, at a similar level of effectiveness, non-targeted subsidies can be substantially more expensive (1.82% of GDP). Our results have important implications for the severity of the COVID-19 recession, the design of policies, and the speed of the recovery
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