Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: An Application to Small Developing States

We present a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters. In addition to permanent damages to public and private capital, the disaster causes temporary losses of productivity, inefficiencies during the reconstruction process, and damages to the sovereign...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Marto, Ricardo
Other Authors: Klyuev, Vladimir, Papageorgiou, Chris
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2017
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: An Application to Small Developing States  |c Ricardo Marto, Chris Papageorgiou, Vladimir Klyuev 
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300 |a 28 pages 
651 4 |a Vanuatu 
653 |a Interest rates 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Public finance & taxation 
653 |a Natural Disasters 
653 |a Financial services 
653 |a Climate 
653 |a Fiscal Policy 
653 |a Other Public Investment and Capital Stock 
653 |a Intangible Capital 
653 |a International Lending and Debt Problems 
653 |a National accounts 
653 |a Global Warming 
653 |a Public-private sector cooperation 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Public investments 
653 |a Capacity 
653 |a Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) 
653 |a Capital 
653 |a Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development 
653 |a National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures 
653 |a Investment 
653 |a Public investment spending 
653 |a Natural Disasters and Their Management 
653 |a Infrastructure 
653 |a Environment 
653 |a Real interest rates 
653 |a Debt Management 
653 |a Debt 
653 |a Expenditure 
653 |a Sovereign Debt 
653 |a Saving and investment 
653 |a Foreign Aid 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 
653 |a Natural disasters 
653 |a Public Finance 
700 1 |a Klyuev, Vladimir 
700 1 |a Papageorgiou, Chris 
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520 |a We present a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters. In addition to permanent damages to public and private capital, the disaster causes temporary losses of productivity, inefficiencies during the reconstruction process, and damages to the sovereign's creditworthiness. We use the model to study the debt sustainability concerns that arise from the need to rebuild public infrastructure over the medium term and analyze the feasibility of ex ante policies, such as building adaptation infrastructure and fiscal buffers, and contrast these policies with the post-disaster support provided by donors. Investing in resilient infrastructure may prove useful, in particular if it is viewed as complementary to standard infrastructure, because it raises the marginal product of private capital, crowding in private investment, while helping withstand the impact of the natural disaster. In an application to Vanuatu, we find that donors should provide an additional 50% of pre-cyclone GDP in grants to be spent over the following 15 years to ensure public debt remains sustainable following Cyclone Pam. Helping the government build resilience on the other hand, reduces the risk of debt distress and at lower cost for donors