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220928 ||| eng |
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|a 9781475584097
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| 100 |
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|a Ball, Laurence
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| 245 |
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|a Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts
|c Laurence Ball, João Tovar Jalles, Prakash Loungani
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| 260 |
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|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 2014
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| 300 |
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|a 19 pages
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| 651 |
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4 |
|a Germany
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| 653 |
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|a Economic & financial crises & disasters
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| 653 |
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|a Labour
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| 653 |
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|a Financial crises
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| 653 |
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|a Economic Forecasting
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| 653 |
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|a Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
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| 653 |
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|a Fiscal Policy
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| 653 |
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|a Unemployment
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| 653 |
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|a National accounts
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| 653 |
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|a Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation
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| 653 |
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|a National income
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| 653 |
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|a Labor
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| 653 |
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|a Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009
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| 653 |
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|a Global financial crisis of 2008-2009
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| 653 |
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|a Forecasting and Other Model Applications
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| 653 |
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|a Macroeconomics
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| 653 |
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|a Gdp forecasting
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| 653 |
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|a Unemployment rate
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| 653 |
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|a Income economics
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| 653 |
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|a Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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| 653 |
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|a Financial Crises
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Jalles, João Tovar
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| 700 |
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|a Loungani, Prakash
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| 041 |
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|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
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| 989 |
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|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
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| 490 |
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|a IMF Working Papers
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| 028 |
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|a 10.5089/9781475584097.001
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| 856 |
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|u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2014/024/001.2014.issue-024-en.xml?cid=41323-com-dsp-marc
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
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|a 330
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| 520 |
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|a This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from forecasts is fairly similar to that in the data for various countries. Furthermore, revisions to unemployment forecasts are negatively correlated with revisions to real GDP forecasts. These results are based on forecasts taken from Consensus Economics for nine advanced countries since 1989
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