The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model

In March 2018, representatives of member countries of the African Union signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. This agreement provides a framework for trade liberalization in goods and services and is expected to eventually cover all African countries. Using a multi-count...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Abrego, Lisandro
Other Authors: Amado, Maria Alejandra, Gursoy, Tunc, Nicholls, Garth
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2019
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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651 4 |a South Africa 
653 |a Economic Integration 
653 |a Income 
653 |a Balance of trade 
653 |a Tariffs 
653 |a Tariff 
653 |a International Trade Organizations 
653 |a Public finance & taxation 
653 |a Taxes 
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653 |a Exports and Imports 
653 |a Aggregate Factor Income Distribution 
653 |a International economics 
653 |a National accounts 
653 |a Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies 
653 |a Commercial policy 
653 |a International trade 
653 |a Trade barriers 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Empirical Studies of Trade 
653 |a Taxation 
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520 |a In March 2018, representatives of member countries of the African Union signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. This agreement provides a framework for trade liberalization in goods and services and is expected to eventually cover all African countries. Using a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model based on Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014), we estimate the welfare effects of the AfCFTA for 45 countries in Africa. Three different model specifications—comprising both perfect competition and monopolistic competition—are used. Simulations include full elimination of import tariffs and partial but substantial reduction in non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Results reveal significant potential welfare gains from trade liberalization in Africa. As intra-regional import tariffs in the continent are already low, the bulk of these gains come from lowering NTBs. Overall gains for the continent are broadly similar under the three model specifications used, with considerable variation of potential welfare gains across countries in all model structures