Is Unemployment on Steroids in Advanced Economies?

Despite conventional macroeconomic theory is based on the idea that demand shocks can only have temporary effects on unemployment, several European economies display highly persistent unemployment dynamics. The theory of hysteresis challenges this view and points out that, under certain conditions,...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Di Bella, Gabriel
Other Authors: Grigoli, Francesco, Ramirez, Francisco
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2018
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Is Unemployment on Steroids in Advanced Economies?  |c Gabriel Di Bella, Francesco Grigoli, Francisco Ramirez 
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300 |a 33 pages 
651 4 |a United Kingdom 
653 |a Labor taxes 
653 |a Labour 
653 |a Income tax 
653 |a Inflation 
653 |a Aggregate Labor Productivity 
653 |a Income economics 
653 |a Cycles 
653 |a Economic theory 
653 |a Price Level 
653 |a Unemployment 
653 |a Labor 
653 |a Deflation 
653 |a Labor market 
653 |a Unemployment rate 
653 |a Aggregate Human Capital 
653 |a Employment 
653 |a Taxation 
653 |a Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General 
653 |a Welfare & benefit systems 
653 |a Demand and Supply of Labor: General 
653 |a Labor supply 
653 |a Intergenerational Income Distribution 
653 |a Wages 
653 |a Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search 
653 |a Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies 
653 |a Business Fluctuations 
700 1 |a Grigoli, Francesco 
700 1 |a Ramirez, Francisco 
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520 |a Despite conventional macroeconomic theory is based on the idea that demand shocks can only have temporary effects on unemployment, several European economies display highly persistent unemployment dynamics. The theory of hysteresis challenges this view and points out that, under certain conditions, demand disturbances can have permanent effects. In this paper, we find strong empirical evidence of unemployment hysteresis in advanced economies since the 1990s. Relying on an identification scheme instigated by an insider/outsider model, we study the effects of demand shocks allowing for cross-country heterogeneous dynamics, and exploit such heterogeneity to investigate what institutional settings have the potential to soften or amplify the effects of demand shocks. Our results indicate that strengthening labor market institutions that promote a faster adjustment of real wages, removing disincentives for firms to hire and for workers to be employed, and improving the matching between labor supply and labor demand can lessen the effects of adverse demand shocks and lead to a faster reversion of unemployment rates to pre-shock levels