Emerging threats and security planning how should we decide what hypothetical threats to worry about?

"Concerns about how terrorists might attack in the future are central to the design of security efforts to protect both individual targets and the nation overall. In thinking about emerging threats, security planners are confronted by a panoply of possible future scenarios coming from sources r...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Jackson, Brian A.
Other Authors: Frelinger, Dave
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Santa Monica, CA RAND 2009, 2009
Series:RAND Corporation occasional paper series
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: JSTOR Open Access Books - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Emerging threats and security planning  |h Elektronische Ressource  |b how should we decide what hypothetical threats to worry about?  |c Brian A. Jackson, David R. Frelinger 
260 |a Santa Monica, CA  |b RAND  |c 2009, 2009 
300 |a x, 19 pages 
505 0 |a Cover; Preface; Contents; Tables; Summary; Emerging Threats and Security Planning: How Should We Decide What Hypothetical Threats to Worry About?; The Variety of Emerging Threats Challenging Security Planning; Framing a Middle-Ground Approach to Addressing Emerging Threats; Identifying Niche Threats; Prioritizing Emerging Threat Scenarios; Conclusions: Security Planning for the Niche and the Novel; References 
505 0 |a Includes bibliographical references (pages 17-19) 
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653 |a POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / Terrorism 
653 |a POLITICAL SCIENCE / Terrorism 
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520 |a "Concerns about how terrorists might attack in the future are central to the design of security efforts to protect both individual targets and the nation overall. In thinking about emerging threats, security planners are confronted by a panoply of possible future scenarios coming from sources ranging from the terrorists themselves to red-team brainstorming efforts to explore ways adversaries might attack in the future. This paper explores an approach to assessing emerging and/or novel threats and deciding whether, or how much, they should concern security planners by asking two questions: (1) Are some of the novel threats 'niche threats' that should be addressed within existing security efforts? (2) Which of the remaining threats are attackers most likely to execute successfully and should therefore be of greater concern for security planners? If threats can reasonably be considered niche threats, they can be prudently addressed in the context of existing security activities. If threats are unusual enough, suggest significant new vulnerabilities, or their probability or consequences means they cannot be considered lesser included cases within other threats, prioritizing them based on their ease of execution provides a guide for which threats merit the greatest concern and most security attention. This preserves the opportunity to learn from new threats yet prevents security planners from being pulled in many directions simultaneously by attempting to respond to every threat at once."--Page 4 of cover