Nowcasting Irish GDP

This paper presents a dynamic factor model that produces nowcasts and backcasts of Irish quarterly GDP using timely data from a panel dataset of 35 indicators. We apply a recently developed methodology, whereby numerous potentially useful indicator series for Irish GDP can be availed of in a parsimo...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: D'Agostino, Antonello
Other Authors: McQuinn, Kieran, O'Brien, Derry
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Paris OECD Publishing 2012
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: OECD Books and Papers - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
Description
Summary:This paper presents a dynamic factor model that produces nowcasts and backcasts of Irish quarterly GDP using timely data from a panel dataset of 35 indicators. We apply a recently developed methodology, whereby numerous potentially useful indicator series for Irish GDP can be availed of in a parsimonious manner and the unsynchronised nature of the release calendar for a wide range of higher frequency indicators can be handled. The nowcasts in this paper are generated by using dynamic factor analysis to extract common factors from the panel dataset. Bridge equations are then used to relate these factors to quarterly GDP estimates. We conduct an out-of-sample forecasting simulation exercise, where the results of the nowcasting exercise are compared with those of a standard benchmark model
Physical Description:11 p. 21 x 28cm