Canada's Potential Growth Another Victim of the Crisis?

This study investigates the impact of the current financial crisis on Canada's potential GDP growth. Using a simple accounting framework to decompose trend GDP growth into changes in capital, labor services and total factor productivity, we find a sizeable drop in Canadian potential growth in t...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Estevão, Marcello
Other Authors: Tsounta, Evridiki
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2010
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Canada's Potential Growth  |b Another Victim of the Crisis?  |c Marcello Estevão, Evridiki Tsounta 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2010 
300 |a 29 pages 
651 4 |a Canada 
653 |a Economywide Country Studies: U.S. 
653 |a Labour; income economics 
653 |a Potential output 
653 |a Saving and Capital Investment 
653 |a Capital and Total Factor Productivity 
653 |a Cost 
653 |a Industrial productivity 
653 |a Production 
653 |a Skills 
653 |a Economic Development: Financial Markets 
653 |a Total factor productivity 
653 |a Production; Economic theory 
653 |a Labor 
653 |a Labor Productivity 
653 |a Macroeconomics: Production 
653 |a Labor Economics: General 
653 |a Labor force participation 
653 |a Canada 
653 |a Labor market 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Occupational Choice 
653 |a Capacity 
653 |a Labor productivity 
653 |a Human Capital 
653 |a Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition 
653 |a Corporate Finance and Governance 
653 |a Production and Operations Management 
653 |a Financial Crises 
653 |a Labor economics 
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520 |a This study investigates the impact of the current financial crisis on Canada's potential GDP growth. Using a simple accounting framework to decompose trend GDP growth into changes in capital, labor services and total factor productivity, we find a sizeable drop in Canadian potential growth in the short term. The estimated decline of about 1 percentage point originates from a sharply decelerating capital stock accumulation (as investment has dropped steeply) and a rising long-term unemployment rate (which would raise equilibrium unemployment rates). However, over the medium term, we expect Canada's potential GDP growth to gradually rise to around 2 percent, below the pre-crisis growth rate, mostly reflecting the effects of population aging and a secular decline in average working hours