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150128 ||| eng |
| 020 |
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|a 9781451874440
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| 100 |
1 |
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|a Brunner, Allan
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| 245 |
0 |
0 |
|a El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices
|b Warm Water or Hot Air?
|c Allan Brunner
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| 260 |
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|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 2000
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| 300 |
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|a 34 pages
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| 651 |
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4 |
|a Australia
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| 653 |
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|a Inflation
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| 653 |
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|a Farm produce
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| 653 |
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|a Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
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| 653 |
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|a Deflation
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| 653 |
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|a Open Economy Macroeconomics
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| 653 |
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|a Diffusion Processes
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| 653 |
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|a Consumer prices
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| 653 |
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|a Agriculture: General
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| 653 |
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|a Time-Series Models
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| 653 |
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|a Investments: Commodities
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| 653 |
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|a Price Level
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| 653 |
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|a Commodities
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| 653 |
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|a Prices
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| 653 |
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|a Macroeconomics
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| 653 |
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|a Commodity prices
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| 653 |
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|a Agricultural commodities
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| 653 |
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|a Dynamic Quantile Regressions
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| 653 |
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|a Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis
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| 653 |
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|a Investment & securities
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| 653 |
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|a State Space Models
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| 653 |
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|a Commercial products
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| 653 |
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|a Commodity Markets
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| 041 |
0 |
7 |
|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
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| 989 |
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|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
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| 490 |
0 |
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|a IMF Working Papers
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| 028 |
5 |
0 |
|a 10.5089/9781451874440.001
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| 856 |
4 |
0 |
|u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2000/203/001.2000.issue-203-en.xml?cid=3910-com-dsp-marc
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
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| 082 |
0 |
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|a 330
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| 520 |
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|a This paper examines the historical effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on world prices and economic activity. The analysis indicates that ENSO has economically-important and statistically-significant effects on world real commodity prices. A one-standard-deviation positive surprise in ENSO, for example, raises real commodity price inflation about 3-1/2 to 4 percentage points. Moreover, ENSO appears to account for almost 20 percent of commodity price inflation movements over the past several years. ENSO also has some explanatory power for world consumer price inflation and world economic activity, accounting for about 10 to 20 percent of movements in those variables
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