Explaining the Recent Behavior of Inflation and Unemployment in the United States

Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon could be the result of a series of transitory shocks or of a permanent change in the structure of the economy leading to a lower NAIRU. The paper suggests that, while the NAIRU may...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Hogan, Vincent
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 1998
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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300 |a 17 pages 
651 4 |a United States 
653 |a Inflation 
653 |a Unemployment 
653 |a Unemployment rate 
653 |a Labor costs 
653 |a Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search 
653 |a Price Level 
653 |a Labor 
653 |a Deflation 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General 
653 |a Labour 
653 |a Income economics 
653 |a Imports 
653 |a Import prices 
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520 |a Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon could be the result of a series of transitory shocks or of a permanent change in the structure of the economy leading to a lower NAIRU. The paper suggests that, while the NAIRU may have fallen slightly, it has not fallen by an amount sufficient to explain the recent behavior of inflation. A leading explanation for recent inflation performance appears to be favorable price shocks; in particular, the cost of imports has fallen sharply as the dollar has appreciated