Is the Canadian Housing Market Overvalued? A Post-crisis Assessment

Canadian house prices have increased significantly between 2003 and early 2008, with a marked downward trend since mid-2008, especially in the resource-rich western provinces. This paper estimates the evolution of equilibrium real home prices during this period in key provinces and finds that, follo...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Tsounta, Evridiki
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2009
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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653 |a Economic & financial crises & disasters 
653 |a Depository Institutions 
653 |a Inflation 
653 |a Real Estate 
653 |a Banks 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Financial crises 
653 |a Industries: Financial Services 
653 |a Infrastructure 
653 |a Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis 
653 |a Asset bubbles 
653 |a Deflation 
653 |a Housing Supply and Markets 
653 |a Micro Finance Institutions 
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653 |a Property & real estate 
653 |a Price Level 
653 |a Saving and investment 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Financial Risk Management 
653 |a Housing prices 
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520 |a Canadian house prices have increased significantly between 2003 and early 2008, with a marked downward trend since mid-2008, especially in the resource-rich western provinces. This paper estimates the evolution of equilibrium real home prices during this period in key provinces and finds that, following recent declines, home prices are now generally close to equilibrium throughout Canada. However, house prices in Alberta and British Columbia remain around 8 percent overvalued at the end of the sample (second quarter of 2009). Despite the limitations of econometric estimates of house-price dynamics, the measured small degree of overvaluation suggests that the Canadian housing market is essentially at equilibrium