The Use of Encompassing Tests for Forecast Combinations

The paper proposes an algorithm that uses forecast encompassing tests for combining forecasts. The algorithm excludes a forecast from the combination if it is encompassed by another forecast. To assess the usefulness of this approach, an extensive empirical analysis is undertaken using a U.S. macroe...

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Main Author: Kisinbay, Turgut
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2007, 2007
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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653 |a Forecast Combination 
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520 |a The paper proposes an algorithm that uses forecast encompassing tests for combining forecasts. The algorithm excludes a forecast from the combination if it is encompassed by another forecast. To assess the usefulness of this approach, an extensive empirical analysis is undertaken using a U.S. macroecoomic data set. The results are encouraging as the algorithm forecasts outperform benchmark model forecasts, in a mean square error (MSE) sense, in a majority of cases