International Trade and the Business Cycle

This paper develops a new empirical framework for analyzing the dynamics of the trade balance in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks. The model provides a synthetic perspective on the conditional correlations between the business cycle and the trade balance that are generated by diff...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Prasad, Eswar
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 1999
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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100 1 |a Prasad, Eswar 
245 0 0 |a International Trade and the Business Cycle  |c Eswar Prasad 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 1999 
300 |a 25 pages 
651 4 |a United States 
653 |a Economic theory & philosophy 
653 |a Supply and demand 
653 |a International economics 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Trade balance 
653 |a Economic Theory 
653 |a Foreign Exchange 
653 |a Economic growth 
653 |a International trade 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis 
653 |a Business Fluctuations 
653 |a Balance of trade 
653 |a Exchange rates 
653 |a Cycles 
653 |a Exports and Imports 
653 |a Real exchange rates 
653 |a Economic theory 
653 |a Foreign exchange 
653 |a Empirical Studies of Trade 
653 |a Currency 
653 |a Open Economy Macroeconomics 
653 |a Business cycles 
653 |a Supply shocks 
653 |a Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) 
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989 |b IMF  |a International Monetary Fund 
490 0 |a IMF Working Papers 
028 5 0 |a 10.5089/9781451847680.001 
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082 0 |a 330 
520 |a This paper develops a new empirical framework for analyzing the dynamics of the trade balance in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks. The model provides a synthetic perspective on the conditional correlations between the business cycle and the trade balance that are generated by different shocks and attempts to reconcile these results with unconditional correlations found in the data. The results suggest that, in the post-Bretton Woods period, nominal shocks have been an important determinant of the forecast error variance for fluctuations in the trade balances of the Group of Seven countries