New Evidenceon Cyclical and Structural Sources of Unemployment
We provide cross-country evidence on the relative importance of cyclical and structural factors in explaining unemployment, including the sharp rise in U.S. long-term unemployment during the Great Recession of 2007-09. About 75% of the forecast error variance of unemployment is accounted for by cycl...
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Other Authors: | , , |
Format: | eBook |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Washington, D.C.
International Monetary Fund
2011
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Series: | IMF Working Papers
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Online Access: | |
Collection: | International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa |
Summary: | We provide cross-country evidence on the relative importance of cyclical and structural factors in explaining unemployment, including the sharp rise in U.S. long-term unemployment during the Great Recession of 2007-09. About 75% of the forecast error variance of unemployment is accounted for by cyclical factors-real GDP changes (?Okun's Law?), monetary and fiscal policies, and the uncertainty effects emphasized by Bloom (2009). Structural factors, which we measure using the dispersion of industry-level stock returns, account for the remaining 25 percent. For U.S. long-term unemployment the split between cyclical and structural factors is closer to 60-40, including during the Great Recession |
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Physical Description: | 42 pages |
ISBN: | 9781455260416 |