|
|
|
|
| LEADER |
02759nmm a2200517 u 4500 |
| 001 |
EB000927906 |
| 003 |
EBX01000000000000000721502 |
| 005 |
00000000000000.0 |
| 007 |
cr||||||||||||||||||||| |
| 008 |
150128 ||| eng |
| 020 |
|
|
|a 9781455261369
|
| 100 |
1 |
|
|a Kawakami, Kei
|
| 245 |
0 |
0 |
|a Identifying Fiscal Policy Transmission in Stochastic Debt Forecasts
|c Kei Kawakami, Rafael Romeu
|
| 260 |
|
|
|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 2011
|
| 300 |
|
|
|a 35 pages
|
| 651 |
|
4 |
|a United States
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Fiscal stance
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Interest rates
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Finance
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Output gap
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Financial services
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Real interest rates
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a National Deficit Surplus
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Debt Management
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Fiscal Policy
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Production
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Debt
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Fiscal policy
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Simulation Methods
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Sovereign Debt
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Macroeconomics: Production
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Banks and Banking
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Macroeconomics
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Economic theory
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Public Finance
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Production growth
|
| 653 |
|
|
|a Production and Operations Management
|
| 700 |
1 |
|
|a Romeu, Rafael
|
| 041 |
0 |
7 |
|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
|
| 989 |
|
|
|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
|
| 490 |
0 |
|
|a IMF Working Papers
|
| 028 |
5 |
0 |
|a 10.5089/9781455261369.001
|
| 856 |
4 |
0 |
|u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2011/107/001.2011.issue-107-en.xml?cid=24835-com-dsp-marc
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
|
| 082 |
0 |
|
|a 330
|
| 520 |
|
|
|a A stochastic debt forecasting framework is presented where projected debt distributions reflect both the joint realization of the fiscal policy reaction to contemporaneous stochastic macroeconomic projections, and also the second-round effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic projections. The forecasting framework thus reflects the impact of the primary balance on the forecast of macro aggregates. Previously-developed forecasting algorithms that do not incorporate these second-round effects are shown to have systematic forecast errors. Evidence suggests that the second-round effects have statistically and economically significant impacts on the direction and dispersion of the debt-to-GDP forecasts. For example, a positive structural primary balance shock lowers the domestic real interest rate, in turn raising GDP and lowering the median debt-to-GDP projection by an additional 10 percent of GDP in the medium term relative to prior forecasting algorithms. In addition, the framework employs a new long-term (five decade) data base and accounts for parameter uncertainty, and for potentially non-normally distributed shocks
|