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150128 ||| eng |
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|a 9781455201891
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| 100 |
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|a Crowe, Christopher
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| 245 |
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|a Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation
|c Christopher Crowe
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| 260 |
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|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 2010
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| 300 |
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|a 43 pages
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| 651 |
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4 |
|a United States
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| 653 |
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|a WP
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| 653 |
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|a Math
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| 653 |
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|a Information Aggregation
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| 653 |
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|a Table
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| 653 |
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|a Consensus Forecasts
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| 041 |
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7 |
|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
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| 989 |
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|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
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| 490 |
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|a IMF Working Papers
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| 028 |
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|a 10.5089/9781455201891.001
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| 856 |
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|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2010/178/001.2010.issue-178-en.xml
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
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|a 330
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|a Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cross-country panel of growth forecasts and new methodological insights, this paper finds that: consensus forecasts are inefficient as predicted; this is not due to individual forecaster irrationality; forecasters appear unaware of this inefficiency; and a simple adjustment reduces forecast errors by 5 percent. Similar results are found using US nominal GDP forecasts. The paper also discusses the result's implications for users of forecaster surveys and for the literature on information aggregation
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