Public Debt in Advanced Economies and its Spillover Effectson Long-Term Yields

Several models establish a positive association between public debt ratios and long-term real yields, but the empirical evidence is not always conclusive. We reconsider this issue, focusing in particular on possible spillover effects of large advanced economies' debt levels to other economies&#...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Alper, Emre
Other Authors: Forni, Lorenzo
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2011
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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651 4 |a United States 
653 |a Interest rates 
653 |a Public debt 
653 |a Duration Analysis 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Public finance & taxation 
653 |a Government debt management 
653 |a Financial services 
653 |a Real interest rates 
653 |a Debt Management 
653 |a Debts, Public 
653 |a Domestic debt 
653 |a Debt 
653 |a Sovereign Debt 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Public financial management (PFM) 
653 |a Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 
653 |a Long term interest rates 
653 |a Public Finance 
653 |a Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General 
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520 |a Several models establish a positive association between public debt ratios and long-term real yields, but the empirical evidence is not always conclusive. We reconsider this issue, focusing in particular on possible spillover effects of large advanced economies' debt levels to other economies' borrowing yields, especially in emerging markets. We extend the existing literature by using real time expectations of fiscal and other macroeconomic variables for a large sample of advanced and emerging economies. We show that an increase in the public debt levels of large advanced economies - especially the United States - spills over to both emerging markets and other advanced economies' long-term real yields and that this effect is significant at the current levels of advanced economies' debt ratios