Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low-Income Countries A Cost-Benefit Analysis

This paper develops a cost-benefit approach that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves in low-income countries, focusing on the role of reserves in preventing and mitigating absorption drops triggered by large external shocks. The approach is applied to a sample of 49 LICs ov...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Dabla-Norris, Era
Other Authors: Kim, Jun, Shirono, Kazuko
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2011
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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651 4 |a United States 
653 |a Economic & financial crises & disasters 
653 |a Foreign exchange reserves 
653 |a Exchange rate arrangements 
653 |a Financial crises 
653 |a Reserve positions 
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653 |a Trade: General 
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653 |a Banking 
653 |a Financial Risk Management 
653 |a Monetary Policy 
653 |a Imports 
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520 |a This paper develops a cost-benefit approach that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves in low-income countries, focusing on the role of reserves in preventing and mitigating absorption drops triggered by large external shocks. The approach is applied to a sample of 49 LICs over the period 1980-2008 to yield estimates of the likelihood and severity of a crisis. The calibration results suggest that the standard metric of three months of imports is inadequate for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. The results also highlight the role of overall policy frameworks and availability of Fund-support in determining optimal reserve levels, raising questions about the uniform applicability of standard rules of thumb across countries